Track U.S. economic trends, Federal Reserve policy and financial conditions
U.S. Macro at a Glance
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Real Treasury YieldsReal Yields
U.S. Dollar StrengthU.S. Dollar
Fed Rate & FOMC
U.S. InflationInflation
Treasury Yields
U.S. Jobs & UnemploymentJobs & Unemployment
U.S. GDP & Economic GrowthGDP Growth
U.S. Recession SignalsRecession Risk
M2 Money Supply
U.S. National Debt
T = trillion USD; bp = basis points. GDP is quarterly annualized; the dollar index is not DXY.T = trillion USD · bp = basis points. GDP: q/q annualized. Dollar: Fed index, not DXY.
Sources & notes
Sources: Federal Reserve Board (policy range, calendar and H.6) and Fed H.10 dollar indexes; U.S. Treasury (nominal and real yields); U.S. Treasury FiscalData (federal debt); Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI, core CPI and unemployment); BLS payroll employment; Bureau of Economic Analysis (PCE and core PCE), and BEA GDP (quarterly growth).
New York Fed: The Yield Curve as a Leading Indicator. © 2026 Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Content from the New York Fed subject to the Terms of Use at newyorkfed.org. Recession model values are reproduced from the linked tracker data. Input months and target months are shown separately by Silver Dominion. This presentation is not an official forecast of, or endorsed by, the New York Fed, Federal Reserve System or FOMC. New York Fed content remains subject to its source permissions, conditions and restrictions.
Values use the same observations as the linked trackers. Source verification status is shown above. Observation dates can be checked in the linked full trackers. A pending source check does not change or erase a previously verified value. Older observations, overdue checks, missing verification and inactive trackers remain identified here; an unavailable value is never estimated. Year-over-year inflation and M2 changes, dollar percentage changes and payroll differences are calculated by Silver Dominion. GDP rates are published BEA estimates; the primary rate is quarterly annualized and the supporting rate is year over year. Dollar index levels use January 2006 = 100 and are not ICE DXY. Payroll changes carry preliminary labels where applicable. BLS.gov cannot vouch for the data or analyses derived from these data after the data have been retrieved from BLS.gov. Monthly, weekly and quarterly series retain their published observation periods between releases. Fed policy rates can remain unchanged between meetings; Treasury daily observations allow for weekends and market closures. Dates refer to observations, not the date on which the page was opened. T = trillion USD; B = billion USD; M = million USD; bp = basis points; pp = percentage points. No single indicator predicts gold or silver prices.
Interest Rates, Inflation & Economic Outlook
Liquidity & Government Debt
U.S. Economic Indicators and Federal Reserve Policy
Gold and silver are influenced by U.S. inflation, interest rates, economic growth and monetary policy. Changes in these indicators affect financial markets, investor expectations and demand for precious metals.
Silver Dominion brings together U.S. macroeconomic data, interactive charts and official economic indicators to help investors understand monetary conditions and broader market developments.
Interest Rates, Inflation and Treasury Yields
Federal Reserve decisions influence borrowing costs and financial conditions, while inflation reports shape expectations for future monetary policy.
Treasury yields provide insight into interest rate expectations and government borrowing costs. Rising real yields can increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold.
Breakeven inflation reflects inflation compensation embedded in Treasury markets, although it also includes risk and liquidity premiums.
Money Supply, Banking Conditions and Government Debt
U.S. M2 money supply and the Federal Reserve balance sheet provide different perspectives on monetary conditions and liquidity.
Banking stress indicators help monitor financial-system risks, while national debt figures track federal borrowing.
The Treasury Auction Demand Tracker provides additional insight into government financing through auction yields, bid-to-cover ratios and investor demand.
Economic Growth, the U.S. Dollar and Precious Metals
GDP growth, employment figures and unemployment rates help assess the strength of the U.S. economy and potential changes in Federal Reserve policy.
Economic activity is particularly important for silver because of its industrial applications, while gold is often more sensitive to monetary conditions and financial uncertainty.
A stronger U.S. dollar can make precious metals more expensive for international buyers, although this relationship varies with market conditions.
No single indicator determines precious metals prices. The Gold & Silver Macro Comparison helps investors explore historical relationships between gold, silver and key economic indicators.
Understanding the broader economic environment provides more valuable context than relying on any single market signal.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is U.S. macroeconomic data important for gold and silver?
U.S. economic indicators influence interest rates, inflation expectations, the dollar and financial market conditions. These factors can affect investment demand for gold and silver, although no single indicator determines precious metals prices.
How do Federal Reserve interest rates affect gold prices?
Federal Reserve interest rate decisions influence borrowing costs, bond yields and monetary conditions. Lower real interest rates can make non-yielding assets such as gold more attractive, while higher real rates may increase the opportunity cost of holding them.
What does U.S. M2 money supply measure?
M2 measures a broad category of money held in the U.S. economy, including currency, checking deposits, savings deposits and certain other liquid assets. Changes in M2 help track monetary expansion or contraction but do not directly predict inflation or gold prices.
Why does the Federal Reserve balance sheet matter?
The Fed’s balance sheet reflects its holdings of securities and other assets. Changes in its size can provide insight into monetary policy operations and financial conditions, although balance sheet growth does not automatically translate into higher inflation or precious metals prices.
What is the difference between nominal and real Treasury yields?
Nominal Treasury yields represent returns on conventional government securities. Real Treasury yields, commonly derived from inflation-protected securities, reflect market-based inflation-adjusted yields. Their relationship helps investors evaluate interest rates and inflation compensation.
What does breakeven inflation indicate?
Breakeven inflation is the difference between nominal and real Treasury yields of comparable maturities. It reflects market inflation compensation over a given period, including inflation expectations and risk premiums. It is not the current inflation rate or a precise forecast.
How can Treasury auction results and U.S. national debt data help investors?
Treasury auction results provide insight into demand for newly issued government securities through measures such as bid-to-cover ratios and auction yields. National debt data tracks federal borrowing over time. Together, these indicators help investors assess government financing conditions and potential pressures on bond markets.