U.S. Breakeven Inflation Tracker

Track U.S. breakeven inflation across 5-, 10- and 30-year maturities, with historical charts, daily changes and monthly averages

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CALCULATED FROM U.S. TREASURY DATALast verified

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Explore breakeven inflation by maturity

10-Year breakeven inflation

Treasury-derived breakeven equals the nominal yield minus the real yield for the same date and maturity. 2.36% is the latest calculated reading.

Rate dateOct 2, 2026
Previous session+0 bp
About 1 month+2 bp

Breakeven inflation history

Latest 12 monthly averages

CHART PERIOD

Mean of daily matched yield spreads in each month · Bars use a zero baseline. Monthly averages below.

Monthly breakeven inflation

Latest 12 months
MonthAverage breakevenMonthly change
Oct 20262.36%+0.9 bp
Sep 20262.35%+6.4 bp
Aug 20262.29%+4.1 bp
Jul 20262.25%-4.5 bp
Jun 20262.29%-15.4 bp
May 20262.45%+6.3 bp
Apr 20262.38%+4.5 bp
Mar 20262.34%+3.6 bp
Feb 20262.30%-0.5 bp
Jan 20262.31%+6.2 bp
Dec 20252.24%-2.2 bp
Nov 20252.27%—

Source: Nominal yields and real yields (U.S. Treasury) · Calculated by Silver Dominion · Checked twice daily

Methodology & data notes

Silver Dominion calculates each daily breakeven as the U.S. Treasury nominal par yield minus the real par yield at the same maturity and on the same rate date. This is a market-derived inflation compensation measure, not observed CPI or an exact inflation forecast. Inflation risk premiums, TIPS liquidity and methodological differences can also affect the spread. It is a calculation based on Treasury data, not a Treasury-published breakeven series or an individual auction result. The 30-year real yield is absent before February 22, 2010 in the bundled archive, so those 30-year spreads are omitted. Daily changes are in basis points (1 bp = 0.01 percentage point); the approximate 1-month comparison uses 21 available rate dates. The table contains monthly means for the latest 12 calendar months, including the latest partial month, with month-to-month changes in basis points. The default 1-year chart shows monthly means; 5 years and All show yearly means back to 2010 where data are available. Treasury can revise its yields; there are normally no observations on weekends or U.S. holidays. Compare with the nominal yields and real yields trackers.

What Does Breakeven Inflation Show?

Breakeven inflation is the difference between a nominal Treasury yield and a real Treasury yield of the same maturity. This tracker calculates that difference using U.S. Treasury data for matching dates.

The 5-, 10- and 30-year views help show how inflation compensation differs across time horizons. Use the charts to follow longer-term changes, and the monthly table to see how recent readings compare.

Why Does It Matter for Gold?

A rise in nominal Treasury yields does not always tell the same story. Part of the move may come from higher real yields, while part may reflect a change in breakeven inflation. That distinction can provide useful context when assessing the pressure on gold.

Compare the figures here with our U.S. Treasury Yields Tracker and U.S. Real Yields Tracker. You can find all three, alongside auction data, in U.S. Treasury Data & Indicators.

Breakeven inflation is a market-derived measure, not the current inflation rate or a precise forecast. Inflation risk premiums and differences in bond-market liquidity can also affect it.

Frequently Asked Questions

How is breakeven inflation calculated?

For each date and maturity, this tracker subtracts the U.S. Treasury’s real par yield from its nominal par yield. For example, a 5.00% nominal yield and a 2.50% real yield produce a 2.50% breakeven spread.

Is breakeven inflation the same as CPI inflation?

No. CPI measures changes in consumer prices that have already occurred. Breakeven inflation is derived from Treasury market yields and looks across a future period.

Does a higher breakeven reading mean gold will rise?

No. It shows a change in inflation compensation in the bond market. Gold can also respond to real yields, the U.S. dollar, investment demand and other factors.

How far back does the tracker go?

The historical charts include data from 2010 where both matching Treasury yield series are available. The 30-year series begins in February 2010.