Gold may be showing an early sign of a potential bottom: the latest decline stopped above October’s low.
After falling to $3,869.85 on October 30, gold retreated again on Tuesday, November 3. This time, spot gold reached $3,893.31 before recovering. Wednesday then brought a strong rally back above $4,000.
For us, the useful development is that buyers stepped in before the previous low was reached. That gives the recovery a specific reference point—and a way to judge whether our interpretation holds up.
A higher low describes the price outcome. It does not tell us exactly who bought or why. Stronger buying, less aggressive selling, or a combination of both could produce that pattern. It would be premature to conclude that sellers have exhausted their positions, a distinction we explored in A Bearish Investor May Still Have Plenty to Sell.
The next pullback could provide more evidence. If buyers return above Tuesday’s low, that would strengthen the case that demand is emerging at progressively higher prices. A break below it would weaken this particular signal, even if October’s low remained intact.
On the gold price chart, the distinction is practical: holding above $3,893.31 would preserve the latest higher low; falling below $3,869.85 would invalidate the developing pattern.
We see a reason to become more constructive, while keeping that view tied to what price does next. The market has given us an early signal and clear levels against which to test it.
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