Before the war, roughly 125 large commercial vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz each day.
On Thursday, preliminary data showed just 4 commodity vessels making the passage. The 10-day average is now around 15.
That is no longer a normal slowdown in shipping.
Hormuz is one of the most important energy routes in the world.
And this is where the story starts to matter for gold and silver as well.
If restricted traffic continues, the first direct impact will likely come through energy markets. Higher oil and gas prices could add pressure to inflation, transportation costs, and production costs, while geopolitical uncertainty continues to rise.
For gold, that creates an interesting mix.
Geopolitical risk and fears of an energy shock can increase demand for safe-haven assets. At the same time, more expensive energy could keep inflation elevated, complicating monetary policy and potentially keeping yields higher.
So I wouldn’t reduce this to a simple equation of “Hormuz = gold higher.”
But in an environment like this, the case for holding physical gold as insurance against events markets cannot predict becomes even stronger.
For silver, the picture is more complicated. Alongside its monetary role, silver has significant industrial demand. An energy shock could support it through stronger demand for precious metals, but it could also become a headwind if the global economic outlook starts to deteriorate.
Four vessels in a single day will not determine the price of gold or silver.
But the gap between 125 vessels before the war and today’s extremely low traffic levels shows just how far conditions in Hormuz remain from normal.
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