US Gold Revaluation: Is a Major July 4 Announcement Coming? The 250th anniversary of the United States, Judy Shelton’s proposal to issue 50-year U.S. Treasury bonds convertible into gold, comments by Scott Bessent, record-breaking $20,000 gold call options, unusual pricing by the U.S. Mint, and extraordinary movements of institutional capital.
This is where the story starts to become truly fascinating.
Call options on gold with a strike price of $20,000 per ounce have now surpassed 30,000 open contracts. For such an extremely distant strike price, this is unprecedented in the history of the gold options market.
And it is not just the $20,000 strike.
Exceptionally high open interest can also be seen at $10,000 and $15,000 per ounce.
Why Is Anyone Buying These Options?
Some traders argue that these options are extraordinarily cheap.
The lower the market believes the probability of success to be, the lower the option premium becomes.
It is similar to betting on a football match.
Imagine an underdog still trailing in the 90th minute. The chances of that team winning would be close to zero. A relatively small bet could generate an outsized return if an almost impossible comeback occurred.
The same logic applies to options.
If, for any reason, gold were to approach $20,000 per ounce, the value of these options could increase by hundreds or even thousands of percent.
For a position of this size, we are no longer talking about millions of dollars, but potentially billions in profits.
At first glance, it is therefore understandable why someone might buy these options.
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Why Is This So Unusual?
There is, of course, another possible explanation.
For a large hedge fund or institutional investor, such a position could simply represent relatively inexpensive insurance against an extreme tail-risk scenario.
However, this is precisely where several questions arise.
Professional investors generally do not like spending money on trades they expect to lose with near certainty.
Historically, the highest open interest has almost always been concentrated around strike prices close to the current market price of gold.
Strike prices this far away have traditionally been a rarity, typically attracting only dozens or, at most, a few hundred contracts.
But there is an even more important point.
As expiration approaches and the probability of success declines, open interest in these types of options normally decreases. Investors close their positions because time works against them.
This time, however, the exact opposite is happening.
Instead of declining, open interest continues to rise.
From 11,000 to More Than 30,000 Contracts
This is precisely why these options have begun attracting attention from major financial media.
The first significant reports appeared in mid-February this year, when open interest stood at approximately 11,000 contracts. Even then, the position was considered highly unusual and sparked widespread discussion.
(Source: Bloomberg / Yahoo Finance)
Since then, however, the situation has changed dramatically.
Gold initially continued its strong rally and reached new all-time highs before entering a correction and moving lower.
From the perspective of the options market, one would normally expect open interest to decline as gold prices fall and time to expiration becomes shorter.
But that is not what happened.
Today, open interest has surpassed 30,000 contracts.
Gold is trading below where it was a few months ago, less time remains until the end of 2026, and, according to most market participants, the probability of reaching $20,000 per ounce is now even lower.
Yet someone continues to systematically add to these positions.
Is this simply a cheap bet on an extremely unlikely outcome?
Or is someone hedging against an event that the broader market still considers virtually impossible?
At this point, no one knows the answer.
One thing, however, is certain.
Open interest of this magnitude at $10,000, $15,000, and especially $20,000 per ounce has very few historical precedents in the gold options market.
Markets Are Not Always as Efficient as We Are Told
We often hear that financial markets instantly reflect all publicly available information. If that were entirely true, it would be impossible to consistently generate above-average returns or anticipate major events before they occur.
Theory, however, is one thing.
Reality sometimes tells a different story.
Unusual Trades Before Major Events
Financial history offers numerous examples where unusually large trades appeared shortly before significant geopolitical events, only making sense in hindsight.
One of the most recent examples occurred on the prediction platform Polymarket, where exceptionally large bets appeared shortly before the U.S. strikes on Iran. Around the same time, betting volume also surged on the possibility of the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei. These trades raised questions among investors about whether some market participants possessed better information than the general public.
Similar situations have also been observed in the oil market. Ahead of several announcements involving ceasefires or de-escalation in the Middle East, unusually accurate trades anticipated sharp declines in oil prices before the news became public.
Nor are these isolated cases.
Before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, analysts also pointed to unusually heavy trading activity in crude oil, natural gas, and defense-related stocks. Although no evidence of insider trading was ever proven, the timing of these trades sparked widespread discussion among investors.
A great deal of attention was also drawn to an academic study published after Hamas’ attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. The authors identified unusually large short positions in Israeli equities immediately before the attack and concluded that the trading pattern was sufficiently abnormal to warrant further investigation.
Coincidence… or Something More?
Could all of this simply be coincidence?
I’ll let each reader draw their own conclusions.
Why I Am Watching the Options Market
This is precisely why I believe it is important to monitor not only the price of gold itself, but also what is happening in the options market.
It may ultimately mean absolutely nothing.
However, if someone continues increasing positions at $10,000, $15,000, and especially $20,000 strike prices while gold prices are declining and time to expiration is steadily running out, it deserves attention.
History has shown more than once that unusual movements of large amounts of capital sometimes precede events whose true significance only becomes clear in hindsight.
Gold Revaluation? My View on the Most Likely Scenario
Although there has been growing speculation about a potential gold revaluation to $20,000 per ounce, I do not consider this to be the most likely outcome. Such a move would dramatically increase the accounting value of U.S. gold reserves, but it could also create a range of unintended consequences. It could undermine confidence in the current monetary system, increase uncertainty across financial markets, and bring not only benefits but also significant risks for the United States.
A different scenario appears far more plausible to me.
The U.S. Treasury still values its gold reserves at the historical official price of approximately $42.22 per ounce. If those reserves were simply revalued to their current market price for accounting purposes, it would make much more economic sense in my view.
This possibility has been discussed publicly several times in recent months. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has also highlighted the large gap between the historical book value of America’s gold reserves and their actual market value.
Such a move would not represent a return to the gold standard or establish a new official gold price. However, it would send a very strong signal that the United States is once again recognizing gold as a strategic asset.
For gold itself, this would likely be a highly positive development. And because gold and silver have historically moved within the same macroeconomic environment, any positive impact on gold would most likely spill over into silver as well.
Why I Believe July 4 Is the Key Date
If something along these lines is going to happen, it is difficult to imagine a more symbolic date than July 4, when the United States celebrates the 250th anniversary of its founding.
For that reason, I believe that if the Trump administration intends to announce any significant change regarding the role of gold, this anniversary would be an ideal opportunity.
However, if no such announcement is made by July 4, I believe the probability of a major shift in the United States’ approach to gold during Donald Trump’s administration will decline significantly.
That does not mean the broader story loses its importance.
Even if nothing ultimately happens, the very fact that gold is once again being discussed in connection with U.S. Treasury bonds, the federal balance sheet, the Treasury Department, and unusually large options positions suggests that its role within the global financial system is once again becoming a subject of serious debate.
And in the end, that may prove to be more important than any single announcement.
Perhaps July 4 will pass without a historic moment.
Perhaps there will be no surprise at all.
But if the past few months have taught us anything, it is that far more is happening around gold than the price chart alone would suggest.
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