Explore gold and silver drawdowns, recovery times, and buying strategies with monthly data since 1971
Explore historical gold and silver price declines and recoveries using monthly averages from January 1971 to Oct 2026.
Silver monthly averages: $92.10 (Jan 2026) → $57.00 (Oct 2026).
Monthly averages, not live prices. Daily highs and lows may differ. Latest observation: Oct 2026.
Monthly drawdown history & recoveries
Below record monthly average (%)Monthly declines from record averages. The minimum decline filters recovery episodes, not this history chart.
Enable JavaScript to explore the chart. Historical observations are also available in the table below.
Hover or tap the chart to inspect values; on mobile, use the slider or arrows. Historical results are not forecasts.
Historical crash & recovery table
Silver · 30% threshold
| Peak / trigger | Trough / decline | Recovered | Peak to recovery | 12M after trigger | 36M after trigger | 60M after trigger |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2026Trigger: Jul 2026 | Oct 2026-38.1% | Still open | Not yet | Not available | Not available | Not available |
| Apr 2011Trigger: May 2012 | Dec 2015-67.0% | Sep 2025 | 14 years, 5 months173 months | -19.9% | -41.5% | -41.8% |
| Jan 1980Trigger: Mar 1980 | Mar 1993-90.7% | Apr 2011 | 31 years, 3 months375 months | -50.2% | -57.1% | -75.7% |
Forward changes use the trigger month’s average, not the peak or trough, and exclude purchase costs. “Not available” means the full forward period is not yet observed. A long drawdown can contain several smaller crashes; those are not counted as independent episodes.
Compare a daily or intraday peak with another price
Calculate a decline using prices on the same basis. Enter your reference peak, then enter a comparison price or load the latest available indicative quote. This calculation does not change the monthly charts.
Prices are user inputs unless a dated quote is loaded. No record peak is assumed.
An indicative quote can differ from your peak’s venue or benchmark. Check that both prices are comparable. Quote requests use Gold API only when you press the button; no entered prices are sent. The source timestamp is shown, and an older quote is not presented as a live price. Provider terms.
Buying after a crash: historical simulator
Optional strategy comparison
Compare buying all at once with spreading the same budget over time.
Choose a historical episode and an observed ending month. Results use the same total starting budget.
Portfolio values include unspent cash and estimated resale proceeds. Solid navy: lump sum. Dashed blue: spread purchases.
Monthly averages are historical reference prices, not executable offers. Your premium and resale discount are constant assumptions, not historical dealer data. All budget is available at the start; unused cash earns no interest. Fractional ounces are allowed. VAT, storage, shipping, currency changes, inflation and income taxes are excluded. No assumption is made about future returns.
Source: The World Bank: Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet) · CC BY 4.0 and Dataset Terms. Calculations and charts: Silver Dominion.
Methodology, sources & limitations
Separate peak-to-price calculator. Reference peaks are entered by the visitor; the plugin does not claim to verify an all-time intraday high. Comparison prices are entered or loaded on request from Gold API. Both prices must use a comparable basis. This calculator is separate from World Bank history, and its inputs never enter the historical charts, tables, simulator or exports.
Observation basis. Nominal monthly average USD prices per troy ounce, starting January 1971. Completed source months only; no interpolation or mixing with live quotes. The analysis period begins near the end of the fixed-dollar gold era. Older record highs outside this period are not considered.
Episode definition. The running highest monthly average is the reference peak. An episode starts below that record and ends when a later monthly average reaches or exceeds it. Equal highs move the peak anchor to the latest equal-high month. An episode qualifies when it first meets the selected decline threshold. That first observed month is the trigger; the decline may overshoot the threshold. Each episode is counted once. Smaller crashes within a still-open episode are not separate observations.
Recovery. Peak-to-recovery duration counts calendar-month steps. An unrecovered episode remains open through the latest observation, even if its lowest point occurred earlier. The median includes recovered episodes only, with its sample count shown. It excludes open episodes and is not a forecast. A recovery in nominal dollars does not establish recovery after inflation or costs.
Comparison chart. Each path is rebased to 100 at its own trigger month; forward paths include subsequent history even after the original peak is regained. Paths may overlap in their later calendar periods. They are descriptive, not independent statistical trials or probabilities. A missing 12/36/60-month result is left unavailable.
Simulated purchases. Lump sum buys at the trigger month’s average. Spreading purchases splits the same initial budget equally across the selected number of months, starting at the trigger. Premium raises each purchase cost; resale discount reduces metal liquidation value. Unspent cash is included without interest. The ending price is the monthly average exactly the selected number of months after the trigger. Monthly average prices are known only after each month, so this is a retrospective comparison, not a tradeable signal or execution backtest.
Source changes. The World Bank workbook describes gold as a spot average of daily rates from June 2025; earlier observations use London afternoon fixing averages. Its silver description uses London afternoon fixing, Handy & Harman before July 1976, and unrefined silver before 1962 (outside this analysis). Its listed providers include Bloomberg, Kitco (gold), IMF (gold), the London bullion market, historical metals publications, Thomson Reuters, the Silver Institute (silver) and the World Bank. Definitions and source estimates may change; observations can be revised.
Licence & independence. The World Bank dataset catalogue identifies CC BY 4.0. Source data are extracted and calculations added by Silver Dominion. Include source and licence attribution when reusing the data or charts, including any applicable source-provider conditions. No affiliation with or endorsement by the World Bank, LBMA or any listed provider is implied. This is historical educational information, not a price forecast or personalized investment recommendation.
Source publication: 2026-11-03. Snapshot retrieved: 2026-11-05. Latest observation: Oct 2026. Shared server checks run daily through WordPress scheduled tasks; source observations are normally published monthly. Failed checks retain verified history.
Gold & Silver Crash and Recovery Explorer
Explore historical gold and silver drawdowns, compare recovery times, and see how different buying strategies performed using monthly average prices since January 1971.
The explorer shows how far prices fell below previous record monthly averages, whether those peaks were regained, and what happened after a selected decline. Our Historical Gold & Silver Prices tool provides additional context through annual price comparisons.
Compare Historical Drawdowns and Recoveries
Choose Gold or Silver and select a minimum decline of 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, or 50%. The comparison chart aligns qualifying episodes at the first month that reached your selected threshold.
Each line starts at 100. A later reading of 120 represents a 20% increase from that starting observation; a reading of 80 represents a further 20% decline.
The historical table identifies peaks, troughs, recovery dates, and subsequent price changes. Unrecovered episodes remain marked as open. Smaller sell-offs within the same unresolved drawdown are not counted separately.
Recovery also requires a larger percentage gain than the original loss: a 20% decline needs a 25% increase to regain the starting price, while a 50% decline needs a 100% increase.
Buying After a Crash
The simulator compares investing a budget immediately with dividing that same budget across consecutive monthly purchases.
Gradual buying can accumulate more ounces if prices continue falling during the purchase schedule. A lump-sum purchase can perform better if prices recover quickly. Neither approach wins automatically.
You can add a purchase premium and resale discount to examine the effect of physical bullion costs. These are constant assumptions you enter, rather than historical dealer quotes. The Gold & Silver Premium Calculator helps evaluate individual product premiums, while the Portfolio Tracker helps organize your actual holdings.
Understanding the Data
This explorer uses World Bank Pink Sheet monthly averages. Its peaks and troughs are not daily or intraday extremes, and monthly averages are not executable purchase prices.
Recovery times describe past outcomes. The displayed median includes completed recoveries only, with the sample count shown. Inflation, currency movements, storage, shipping, and taxes are excluded.
For shorter-term price fluctuations, explore the Gold & Silver Volatility Tracker. Broader physical-market conditions can be followed through our Supply and Demand Tracker and Inventory Tracker.
Frequently Asked Questions
What Is a Gold or Silver Drawdown?
A drawdown is the percentage decline below an earlier price high. This explorer measures declines from the highest monthly average previously observed in its dataset, starting in January 1971.
How Long Does Silver Take to Recover After a Crash?
There is no fixed recovery period. The historical table shows completed recoveries and episodes that remain open. Previous recovery times do not predict how long a future recovery will take.
Does the Explorer Show Exact Daily Highs and Lows?
No. It uses monthly average prices, which smooth movements within each month. Daily and intraday prices can show different drawdown depths, peaks and recovery dates.
Why Are Some Historical Returns Unavailable?
The complete forward period may not yet have occurred. A recent episode cannot have an observed five-year return until five subsequent years of data are available. Missing results are not estimated.
Does Gradual Buying Always Beat a Lump-Sum Purchase?
No. Gradual purchases can benefit from further price declines, while a lump-sum purchase can benefit from a rapid recovery. The simulator compares both approaches using the same starting budget and the selected historical price path.
Are Physical Bullion Costs Included?
The simulator includes the purchase premium and resale discount you enter as constant assumptions. Inflation, currency changes, VAT, storage, shipping and income taxes are excluded. The main historical chart and return table show price changes before costs.
Is the Explorer Free, and Where Do Its Data Come From?
Yes. The explorer is free to use and uses World Bank Commodity Price Data, known as the Pink Sheet. Source attribution, licence information and calculation definitions appear in the methodology section. Official source: World Bank Commodity Markets .