Silver would need to substantially outperform gold for the two headline forecasts to come true together.
According to Reuters’ report on the conference poll, LBMA delegates expect gold at $5,013, silver at $97, platinum at $1,914 and palladium at $1,415 per ounce over the next 12 months. These figures represent expectations gathered from conference participants.
Using the reference prices in that report—approximately $4,170 for gold and $61 for silver—the forecasts imply gains of roughly 20% and 59%, respectively.
Silver has the more demanding target by a considerable margin.
Together, those two price forecasts imply a gold-silver ratio of approximately 51.7:1, compared with around 68.4:1 at the report’s reference prices. That is our calculation from the reported forecasts, rather than a separate survey result for the ratio.
The arithmetic shows how much relative strength the silver forecast requires.
If gold reached $5,013 while the ratio remained unchanged, silver would trade at approximately $73.33. Anyone comparing the scenarios in our Gold & Silver Ratio Calculator can see the difference: reaching $97 requires silver to gain substantially more ground against gold.
For us, that creates a useful test for any recovery. Rising prices across precious metals would support the direction of the forecasts. A sustained decline in the ratio would support the additional expectation of silver outperformance.
The poll cannot tell us which buyers would drive that move, how much capital they would commit, or whether they will act on their expectations.
It does reveal the scale of the ambition: the reported silver target requires a major improvement in its value relative to gold.
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